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25 Jul 2022

NZD/USD aims to recapture 0.6300 as Fed’s pre-anxiety remains on-shore

  • NZD/USD is hoping to resume its upside journey towards 0.6300 on dismal US S&P PMI.
  • A 75 bps rate hike by the Fed looks possible as economic data is not supporting a 1% rate hike.
  • The kiwi bulls will focus on the ANZ Business Confidence data.

The NZD/USD pair is auctioning around 0.6250 after a minute correction on Friday as the kiwi bulls found barricades around the critical hurdle of 0.6300. The asset is likely to recapture its monthly high near 0.6300 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its status-quo and elevate its interest rate by 75 basis points (bps) in its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Rather than going all in for a 100 bps rate hike to tame soaring inflation.

Wall Street posted losses on Friday after dismal earnings from big boys, however, the sentiment in the FX domain remained upbeat as investors are seeing a consecutive rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday. The long-run inflation expectations indicator has displayed that the upside momentum in the price pressures in the US is displaying exhaustion. While the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) has not displayed any signal of a peak in the inflation rate.

The economic factor which may restrict the Fed to 75 bps and won't allow following the footprints of the Bank of Canada (BOC) is the downbeat S&P PMI released on Friday and expectations of slippage in employment data. Google reported a two-week halt in recruitment, while Ford announced plans to cut around 8,000 jobs. Expectations of lower headcounts by Google in upcoming quarters may weigh pressure on central banks and the impact of higher inflation will keep lingering on the economy.

On the kiwi front, investors will keep an eye on the release of the ANZ Business Confidence this week. The economic data is expecting an improvement to -55 than the prior release of -62.6. A higher-than-expected figure is likely to strengthen the kiwi bulls against the greenback.

 

 

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Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has requested China to remove its trade sanctions against Australia to begin repairing the fractured relati
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