S&P 500 Index: VIX above 200-DMA at 20.04 to increase risks for a deeper correction lower – Credit Suisse

The S&P 500 continues to lose near-term momentum and has seen a test and hold for now from key support from its 13-day exponential average at 4503. A close below here is needed to confirm a deeper corrective setback is underway, with next support seen at 4469, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

See: Two factors to fuel a near-term correction in US stock indices – Morgan Stanley

The VIX above 20.04 can clear the way for a deeper equity setback

“We continue to watch the VIX closely which has risen from the lower end of its two-month range and is now approaching its key resistance from its 200-day average at 20.04. A close above here would suggest strength can extend to the top of the range at 24.50, but would importantly also suggest the S&P 500 can see a deeper setback, reinforcing the current poor momentum picture.” 

“A close below the 13-day exponential average at 4503 should confirm a corrective phase lower is indeed underway for a test of the 4469 recent low, with scope then for the potential uptrend from July and price support at 4452/42.”

“Resistance stays seen at 4529 initially, with a break above 4546 needed to curtail thoughts of a correction to reassert the uptrend with resistance then seen next at 4565 ahead of 4600/15.”