Thailand: Economy could contract nearly 8% in 2020 – UOB

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan assessed the latest GDP figures in Thailand.

Key Quotes

“Thailand’s GDP fell 12.2% y/y (-9.7% q/q sa) in the second quarter of 2020, clocking the deepest contraction since 2Q98 (-12.5% y/y, -4.1% q/q sa). The economy has been dragged by its key growth engines, specifically trade and tourism.”

“Given the double-digit contraction seen in 2Q20, the National Economic and Social Development Council downgraded its GDP outlook to a range of between -7.3% and -7.8% in 2020, down from its previous range outlook of between -5% and -6%. This compares to Bank of Thailand’s recently revised outlook of -8.1%.”

“Thailand remains to be one of the Asian economies that is very dependent on trade and tourism. Given the deterioration in the outlook for these industries, we downgrade Thailand’s GDP outlook to -7.5% in 2020, down from our previous outlook of -5.4%.”