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24 Jul 2020

USD/JPY drops to fresh 1-month lows, around 106.25 region

  • USD/JPY witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Friday.
  • The risk-off mood benefitted the safe-haven JPY and was seen as a key factor exerting pressure.
  • Worries over surging COVID-19 cases weighed on the USD and further added to the selling bias.

The USD/JPY pair dived to fresh one-month lows, around the 106.25 region in the last hour and has now moved well within the striking distance of June monthly swing lows.

The pair added to the previous day's losses and remained under some heavy selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Friday – also marking the third day of a negative move in the previous four. The downfall was sponsored by reviving demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen and took along near-term trading stops placed near the 106.65-60 horizontal support.

The recent escalation of diplomatic tensions between the US and China overshadowed the latest optimism over a potential vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease. This, in turn, took its toll on the global risk sentiment, which was evident from a fresh leg down in the equity markets and forced investors to take refuge in traditional safe-haven assets.

On the other hand, the US dollar remained depressed on the back of concerns that the economic recovery in the US could be grinding to a halt amid a resurgence in new COVID-19 cases. The market worries were further fueled by Thursday's release of Initial weekly Jobless Claims, which unexpectedly increased to 1.1416 million as compared to the previous week’s 1.307 million.

Apart from the mentioned fundamental factors, the possibility of some technical selling below the 106.65-60 support area further seemed to have aggravated the bearish pressure surrounding the USD/JPY pair. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards June monthly swing lows, around the 106.05 region, now looks a distinct possibility.

Later during the early North American session, investors will confront the releases of the US flash PMI prints, which will be followed by New Home Sales data and influence the USD price dynamics. This, along with the broader market risk sentiment will influence demand for the USD/JPY and produce some meaningful trading opportunities on the last day of the week.

Technical levels to watch

 

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