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5 Feb 2020

AUD/JPY: Under pressure following China’s Caixin Services PMI, RBA’s Lowe

  • AUD/JPY fails to extend the previous day’s run-up after China’s downbeat data, an absence of hawkish comments from RBA’s Lowe.
  • Trade sentiment recovered earlier, await further direction now.
  • The latest PMIs from Australia and Japan earlier failed to offer any key direction.

AUD/JPY remains on the back foot while taking rounds to 73.65 during the early Wednesday. The pair’s latest triggers came from the RBA and China’s Caixin Services PMI.

China’s Caixin Services PMI for January slipped below 52.6 forecast and 52.5 prior to 51.8. The service gauge of Australia’s largest customer flashed signs of weakness for the Australian dollar.

Following the surprise hawkish halt by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) the previous day, Governor Philip Lowe crossed wires before few minutes. The RBA policymaker, while speaking at the National Press Club in Sydney, said that the economy is still passing through “gentle turning point” for the better.

Earlier during the day, Australia’s Commonwealth Bank Services PMI and Composite PMI flashed positive results. While the Services gauge rose beyond 48.9 forecast to 50.6, the composite mark also crossed 48.6 expected with an uptick to 50.2. Following that, Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI for January dropped below 52.1 versus 51.00.

Even so, the pair failed to extend the previous day’s RBA-led gains. The reason could be attributed to the spread of China’s coronavirus. The latest update suggests that there are more than 16,000 people infected through lethal disease inside China.

The risk-tone remains mostly directionless after being on the front foot on Tuesday. The reason for the earlier risk reset could be positive data from the key global economies as well as the Chinese urge to not panic due to the epidemic. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields trim one basis point (bp) from its earlier eight bps gains to 1.59% whereas S&P 500 Futures lose 0.30% to 3,298 by the press time.

While the Aussie and Japanese economic calendars don’t have anything major left for publishing, updates concerning China’s coronavirus will be the key to watch.

Technical Analysis

AUD/JPY prices need to provide a daily closing beyond the early-January lows surrounding 73.75 to challenge a 200-day SMA level of 74.45, failure to do so can keep pushing the quote southwards to the yearly low near 72.45.

 

Feb 5, 2020

China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.8 below forecasts (52.6) in January

China Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.8 below forecasts (52.6) in January
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Feb 5, 2020

Coronavirus to have a bigger economic impact on NZ than SARS – Westpac

Analysts at Westpac are concerned that the coronavirus is likely to have a bigger economic impact on New Zealand than SARS. Key notes Our baseline sce
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