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31 Dec 2019

USD/INR: Under pressure amid Indian government/banking measures

  • USDINR logs in the second consecutive daily losses.
  • Indian government scales down ministries’ spending limits, largest bank announces loan relief.
  • Year-end consolidation, USD weakness will keep traders entertained.

USD/INR drops to 71.25 while heading into the European session on Tuesday. The pair keeps the losses rolling for the second day in a row as the Indian government announces measures to ward off fears of economic weakness while the country’s largest lender also contributes to the move.

Indian Finance Ministry recently announced changes to the limits that government ministries and departments can spend from the total financial budget. As per the new rules, the maximum spending capacity is 25% versus 33% prior to the last quarter of the financial year. This also includes a cap of 10% (15% previously) of the budget that can be disbursed during January to March quarter, i.e. the final one for the Indian economy.

Also, the State Bank of India (SBI), the country’s largest lender, eased loan rates mortgage borrowers and small businesses.

Furthermore, broad US dollar (USD) weakness on the back of mixed data and the year-end consolidation also contributed to the pair’s weakness.

Even so, the Indian Rupee (INR) gains were in check as Telecom Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said that India will not bar any equipment suppliers, such as China's Huawei, in the upcoming trials for 5G. The same indicates hardships for the India-US ties the Trump administration has repeatedly pushed the Asian nation to bar Chinese telecom giants.

Earlier during the day, China released its monthly official PMI data and pleased Asian traders with a second above 50 reading of Manufacturing PMI.

With this, the market’s risk tone stays positive with the US 10-year treasury yields taking rounds to 1.89%. However, a closing in Japan, Australia, New Zealand and certain other places seem to restrict the trading liquidity.

Moving on, investors might continue getting few moves amid a lack of major data and the year-end sparse trading activity. Also, global markets will be off on Wednesday and the same will exert additional pressure on the macro liquidity.

Technical Analysis

While 71.58/60 offers immediate resistance to the pair, 71.00 and 200-day EMA around 70.70 seem to be the key downside supports.

 

Dec 31, 2019

BOK’s Lee: Will maintain easy policy in 2020 on growth concerns, financial risks

South Korea’s central bank, Bank of Korea (BOK), Governor Lee Ju-yeol said in a New Year’s statement on Tuesday, monetary policy should remain accommo
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Dec 31, 2019

China: Manufacturing PMI stays in expansion territory – TDS

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, notes that China's manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 50.2 in December (TD
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