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30 May 2014
Japan: Post-consumption tax hike surprises unlikely - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - Nomura expects all-Japan core CPI inflation will stay unchanged from end-2013 at 1.3%.
Key Quotes
"Our forecast for April all-Japan core CPI (scheduled announcement at 23:30 GTM on Thursday May 29): +3.0% y-y (March: +1.3% y-y). We expect the April all-Japan core CPI to come in at +3.0% y-y, or +1.3% excluding the impact of the change in the rate of consumption tax, to peg level with the March figure of +1.3%. We look for the corresponding all-Japan core core CPI figures to come in at +2.2% and +0.7%, respectively, again little changed from the previous month."
"Our forecast for May Tokyo core CPI: +2.9% y-y (April: +2.7% y-y) Our forecast for the May Tokyo core CPI rate (scheduled for simultaneous announcement with the all-Japan CPI for April) is +2.9% y-y, or +1.0% y-y excluding the consumption tax hike’s effects, unchanged from April. Our Tokyo core core CPI forecast is for +2.0% y-y, or +0.5% y-y excluding consumption tax hike effects, representing a 0.1ppt m-m decline."
Key Quotes
"Our forecast for April all-Japan core CPI (scheduled announcement at 23:30 GTM on Thursday May 29): +3.0% y-y (March: +1.3% y-y). We expect the April all-Japan core CPI to come in at +3.0% y-y, or +1.3% excluding the impact of the change in the rate of consumption tax, to peg level with the March figure of +1.3%. We look for the corresponding all-Japan core core CPI figures to come in at +2.2% and +0.7%, respectively, again little changed from the previous month."
"Our forecast for May Tokyo core CPI: +2.9% y-y (April: +2.7% y-y) Our forecast for the May Tokyo core CPI rate (scheduled for simultaneous announcement with the all-Japan CPI for April) is +2.9% y-y, or +1.0% y-y excluding the consumption tax hike’s effects, unchanged from April. Our Tokyo core core CPI forecast is for +2.0% y-y, or +0.5% y-y excluding consumption tax hike effects, representing a 0.1ppt m-m decline."