Canada: Employment levels to remain unchanged in March - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canadian employment levels to remain unchanged in March as firms hit pause after hiring over 100k workers over the first two months of 2019.

Key Quotes

“Given the inherent volatility of the labour force survey, it is difficult to rule out further gains but we would note that the current 6m trend for job growth (48k per month, 29k full time) is entirely at odds with broader conditions in the Canadian economy.”

“Unchanged employment should see the unemployment rate tick higher to 5.9% barring any unforeseen change to labour force participation while wage growth should hold at 2.2% y/y. Hours worked will also come under scrutiny after three consecutive declines that have seen total labour input fall into negative territory on a year-ago basis for the first time in two years.”

“Further softness here would underscore the recent slowdown in the Canadian economy and undercut the message from strong employment gains.”