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30 Apr 2018

USD/CHF holding 0.9900 on USD strength

  • The US dollar keeps being well-bid as traders are pricing in a rate hike in June but Wednesday’s FOMC is crucial.
  • Talks about denuclearization between North and South Korea hurt demand for safe-haven CHF.

The USD/CHF is trading at about 0.9914 up 0.35% in Monday’s trading. 

The bulls managed to break above the 0.9900 level in the second part of the European session and the pair is now consolidating in a tight range above the 0.9900 handle. 

The US bullish sentiment from last week rolled over into Monday. The US Dollar Index is trading at a 3.5-month high currently trying to break the 0.9190 level to the upside at the time of writing. Earlier in the day, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 1.9% y/y in March matching analysts expectations. The PCE is the favorite inflation indicator of the Fed. 

The USD/CHF bull run is mainly US dollar-led. Rising US Treasury yields and inflation, as well as positive macroeconomic data, have sparked a strong demand for the greenback. Investors are pricing in that the Fed will hike in June. However on Wednesday on the FOMC meeting, if the Fed expresses doubts and sounds dovish blaming market conditions or rising yields, there is a danger that investors will sell the greenback according to analysts. 

On the other hand, the Swiss National is not expected to enter a hiking cycle any time soon. Earlier in the day, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer fell to the multi-month low level of 105.3 in April. Additionally, talks about denuclearization between the two Koreas do not favor safe-haven currencies such as CHF or JPY.

USD/CHF daily chart

The trend is bullish. Resistance is seen in the 0.9978-1.000 region and at the 1.0038 swing high while support is seen at 0.9871 Friday’s low and at the 0.9800 handle. 

Apr 30, 2018

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