AUD/USD – Approaching its 200 month ma at .8060 - Commerzbank

Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones says the Aussie dollar has ran through key resistance last week and now looks set to extend rally to 200-day moving average (MA) level of 0.8060. 

Key quotes

AUD/USD last week eroded the .7896 mid-October high, and targets the .7998/.8000 78.6% retracement and the .8060 200 month moving average. This is considered to be the last defence for the .8125 September high. It will stay immediately bid while above the .7808 low from last week. Initial support is the accelerated uptrend at 0.7850.

Where are we wrong? The market is bid above the 200 and 55 day ma at .7711/.7682. These guard strong support – namely the 2016- 2018 uptrend line and double Fibonacci retracement at .7540/.7475 (50% retracement of the move up from the 2016 low AND the 78.6% retracement of the move seen from May 2017).

Short-Term Trend (1-3 weeks): Bouncing from the 2016-2107 uptrend at .7540. Scope for .7900/.8000 region.

Long-term trend (1-3 months): Neutral to positive above the 2016- 2017 uptrend.