USD/JPY tough resistance lies near 115.00 – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted USD/JPY faces strong resistance around the 115.00 handle.

Key Quotes

“The market is consolidating just below the 55 day ma at 114.40 and the top of the cloud at 114.60 - the 15th February high at 114.95 is also found in this vicinity. This is tough resistance and may take several attempts to break but we view the market as now well placed to do so. We view the recent low at 111.59 as an interim low. A close above the 115.62 19th January high is needed to reintroduce scope to the key short term resistance offered by the 16 month resistance line at 117.77 – and this remains our favoured view”.

“Only below 111.59 would introduce scope to Fibonacci support at 109.92 and, if seen, the 200 day ma at 107.75. We look for this to hold (this is also the 50% retracement of the move up from November). However this is not our favoured view - we also note that the recent move lower continues to indicate that this is the end of the corrective move”.