CAD vulnerable to CPI downside surprises - BNPP

Analysts at BNP Paribas suggests that Canada releases January CPI data today and market consensus is looking for a small uptick in the y/y rate to 1.6% from 1.5% in December and 1.2% in November.

Key Quotes

“We would expect the CAD to be particularly sensitive to downside surprises in light of markets pricing for risk of rate hikes later this year and note the currency weakened sharply on softer retail sales numbers released Wednesday. We forecast the BoC to remain on hold until late 2018. We continue to target USDCAD reaching 1.37 by the end of Q3.”