Italy voted “No” by a margin of close to 20ppts - TDS

Research Team at TDS, notes that the Italy voted “No” by a margin of close to 20ppts, much worse than the <10ppt margin that polls were pointing to.

Key Quotes

“Renzi announced in a press conference just after 11pm that he will tender his resignation to the President today. You can never be sure with Italian politics, but we still wouldn't see new elections (before already scheduled in 2018) as our base case. While a Renzi II govt is less likely than before given the scale of his referendum defeat, there are still a few other more palatable options before you get to that stage of new elections.”