AUD/USD continues to struggle below 100-DMA

Although upside for the AUD/USD pair seems capped around 100-day SMA, on shorter time-frame the pair seems well supported by 100-hourly SMA near 0.7375-70 region.

Despite of the Fed inaction on Wednesday and better-than-expected Australian employment numbers on Thursday, the pair failed to sustain its momentum beyond 100-day SMA. Also on Friday, bulls are unable to extract bullish momentum from broadly weak US Dollar and recovery in crude oil prices. 

In the past two week, the pair has failed to build on to its recovery momentum led by dismal May NFP numbers and status-quo RBA monetary policy stance. Moreover, in the current trading week the pair was seen struggling below 100-day SMA. 

Repeated failure to move back above an important moving average suggests that bulls might be loosing grip and the pair could be set to resume its prior weakening trend, which would get confirmed once the pair decisively drops back below 0.7375-70, hourly SMA support.

Technical outlook

Noting to the weakening momentum of the pair, Yann Quelenn, Market Analyst at Swissquote Bank SA notes, "AUD/USD is trading mixed. Yet the pair seems to weaken. Hourly support is located at 0.7286 (16/06/2016 low). Stronger daily support is given at 0.7110 (29/10/2016 low). Expected to further decline."

"In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view."