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9 Sep 2013
Flash: What lies ahead of the USD/JPY – Westpac and Commerzbank
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The USD/JPY continues to meander around 99.40 and 99.50 on Monday, as the weakness surrounding the greenback is dragging the pair from overnight peaks above the triple-digit figure.
According to Westpac Global Strategy Group, “The signs are increasingly clear that Japan’s sales tax rise will proceed, comforting those worried PM Abe could duck the tough decisions. This should support the Nikkei (as has the Tokyo Olympic win) and help drag USD/JPY higher. Yet US data has not been impressive enough to see sustained gains beyond 100.00 yet. This probably won’t change on the week though we look for dip buyers with a 98 handle”.
“Last week USD/JPY broke higher from a 5 month triangle and we believe that it is in the process of resuming its up move. Our initial upside target is the 101.54/60 July high and the Fibonacci retracement. However the triangle offers a the potential for a substantial upswing. The measured target is approximately at 109/110.00, with a Fibonacci retracement offering a 105.48 resistance point en route”, assessed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.
According to Westpac Global Strategy Group, “The signs are increasingly clear that Japan’s sales tax rise will proceed, comforting those worried PM Abe could duck the tough decisions. This should support the Nikkei (as has the Tokyo Olympic win) and help drag USD/JPY higher. Yet US data has not been impressive enough to see sustained gains beyond 100.00 yet. This probably won’t change on the week though we look for dip buyers with a 98 handle”.
“Last week USD/JPY broke higher from a 5 month triangle and we believe that it is in the process of resuming its up move. Our initial upside target is the 101.54/60 July high and the Fibonacci retracement. However the triangle offers a the potential for a substantial upswing. The measured target is approximately at 109/110.00, with a Fibonacci retracement offering a 105.48 resistance point en route”, assessed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.