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17 Jul 2015
EUR/USD forecast: focus back on ECB-Fed – Commerzbank and Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has regained the 1.0900 neighbourhood today after dropping to the mid-1.0800s on Thursday, all ahead key US CPI figures due later.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “has broken down from its range, it has broken down from cloud support and more importantly the lagging line is below the cloud. When this happens in conjunction with price we have a sell signal from the cloud analysis. We have had a sell signal on the DMI since the 23rd June and MACD is below zero. Needless to say our outlook is negative and we look for losses to the 1.0819 the May low and the 1.0772 4 month support line”.
In addition, Strategists at Westpac commented the pair “looks set to extend what has been a low intensity glide path lower in place since late June. A run at 1.08 looks likely next week, potentially weaker EZ manufacturing PMI the catalyst. Otherwise the broad narrative continues speak to further medium term downside and a retest of the 1.0460 March 2015 lows, Chair Yellen delivering the latest nail in the coffin with her comments reinforcing Sep hike odds even as markets give it barely a 35% chance”.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “has broken down from its range, it has broken down from cloud support and more importantly the lagging line is below the cloud. When this happens in conjunction with price we have a sell signal from the cloud analysis. We have had a sell signal on the DMI since the 23rd June and MACD is below zero. Needless to say our outlook is negative and we look for losses to the 1.0819 the May low and the 1.0772 4 month support line”.
In addition, Strategists at Westpac commented the pair “looks set to extend what has been a low intensity glide path lower in place since late June. A run at 1.08 looks likely next week, potentially weaker EZ manufacturing PMI the catalyst. Otherwise the broad narrative continues speak to further medium term downside and a retest of the 1.0460 March 2015 lows, Chair Yellen delivering the latest nail in the coffin with her comments reinforcing Sep hike odds even as markets give it barely a 35% chance”.