Forex Flash: USD looks at QE3 and EUR eyes economic data - Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts believe expectations regarding the Fed’s future approach will be the main driver of the greenback and consequently the EUR/USD. “As a result it did not really come as a surprise that EUR/USD shrugged off the very disappointing Phily Fed index (which fell from -5.8 to -12.5 points, while consensus had expected a result of +1.0 points). Economic data is of secondary importance if the Fed has to answer the question whether further bond purchases make sense from a cost-benefit point of view”, wrote Lutz Karpowitz, adding that despite better recovery than in Europe, the Fed has been disappointed with the pace of recovery. “The question now is less whether the Fed will be satisfied after all but whether it will reduce its QE3 measures despite – in its own eyes – unsatisfactory economic recovery”, Karpowitz said.

About Europe, a new refi rate cut is still possible: “In this context the ECB projections are clearly very significant and as a result obviously also the current economic data”, he continued, adding that contrary to the US the ECB’s future approach therefore depends mainly on the economic data.