Not all USD bulls have capitulated yet – Commerzbank

Economists at Commerzbank analyze why the market has not finally decided whether we saw a decisive reversal last week with the Fed decision which would justify a significant re-valuation of the US Dollar.

Anyone who does not participate in this extrapolation of the dots’ momentum might be excessively reactionary

The unswerving USD bulls may be pointing out that the FOMC members still do not have rate cut expectations that are as aggressive as those held by the market. But isn’t that always the case? Isn’t it the case that the FOMC members adjust their dots to new realities step by step? Does that not always mean that all those who have to make realistic Fed projections are forced to extrapolate the changes to the dots?

In this sense, the market is not exactly carried away only because it once again undercuts the dots that have already been corrected to the downside. On the contrary, anyone who does not participate in this extrapolation of the dots’ momentum might be excessively reactionary.