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9 Mar 2023

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD remains vulnerable, acceptance below $20.00 awaited

  • Silver enters a bearish consolidation phase and oscillates in a narrow range around the $20.00 mark.
  • The technical setup supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established downtrend.
  • A slightly oversold RSI on the daily chart is holding back bearish traders from placing fresh bets.

Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction and extends its sideways consolidative price move around the $20.00 psychological mark through the mid-European session on Thursday. The white metal, meanwhile, remains well within the striking distance of over a four-month low touched on Wednesday and seems vulnerable to prolonging its downward trajectory witnessed since early February.

The recent breakdown through a technically significant 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Furthermore, this week's sustained weakness below the $20.50-$20.40 horizontal support, which coincided with the previous YTD low, adds credence to the negative outlook. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the downside.

That said, Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering in the oversold territory. Moreover, repeated failures to find acceptance below the $20.00 psychological mark make it prudent to wait for near-term consolidation before placing fresh bets around the XAG/USD. Nevertheless, the metal's inability to attract any buyers suggests that the near-term descending trend is still far from being over.

Hence, a subsequent slide towards testing the $19.60 intermediate support, en route to the $19.00 round-figure mark, looks like a distinct possibility. Some follow-through selling should pave the way for a slide towards the next relevant support near the $18.80-$18.75 region before the XAG/USD eventually drops to $18.30-$18.25 horizontal zone and the $18.00 level, which should offer strong support.

On the flip side, the $20.40-$20.50 support breakpoint now seems to act as an immediate barrier. Any further recovery is likely to attract fresh sellers and remains capped near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged just ahead of the $21.00 mark. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared decisively could lift the XAG/USD to the mid-$21.00s. Bulls 
might then aim to reclaim the $22.00 mark.

Silver daily chart

fxsoriginal

Key levels to watch

 

Mar 9, 2023

EUR/USD to consolidate around 1.0520-1.0580 range – OCBC

EUR/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Wednesday. Economists at OCBC Bank expect the pair to trade within a 1.0520-1.0580 range
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Mar 9, 2023

US Dollar to thrive as rates will stay higher for longer – Rabobank

Economists at Rabobank see the risks as being titled towards a firmer for longer USD in the coming months. King Dollar (again)? “In the near-term, the
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